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Protest in Turkey: "It is feared a violent reaction"

Kader Kadem | 06:26 | 0 Comments
SonneInKreuzberg: This situation does the risk of escalation and explosion of Turkish civil society?
In a chat with readers of Monde.fr, Elise Massicard, the French Institute of Anatolian Studies in Istanbul, analyzes the consequences of the events in Turkey.

Borzu Why Erdogan denies he heard the protesters? He treats them as "scum" and seems to ignore what they have to say!

Until now, Erdogan has not listened to the claims raised in the dispute. He had already done so before in other cases. In addition, there are few institutionalized in Turkey that can make these claims hear channels.

Erdogan delegitimize the claims calling people mobilized manipulated by interest groups, foreign forces, or by calling them "vandals" groups.

From his stance, he wants to give the impression of a statesman who knows where it goes and who does not intend to give in to pressure it considers marginal. And mode of action of political protesters, with occupation of public places, yet prohibited allows Erdogan to delegitimize a little more.

Since he was elected with an overwhelming majority, he sees himself as the democratic representation of citizens. Therefore, he did not listen to the claims expressed by non-legally qualified marginal groups that, despite the magnitude of the events.

SonneIn Kreuzberg: This situation does the risk of escalation and explosion of Turkish civil society?

The situation is tense, and trends observed in the polarization. Two points: what's new in the movement that is expressed is that it brings a lot of opinions, different currents: Kemalists (supporters of the authoritarian and strictly secular Republic founded by Mustafa Kemal), the more organizations to the left, pure nationalists, feminists, even Muslims anticapitalist ...

It should be added that many people do not recognize themselves in a particular group, which are quite liberal opinion. But today, there is risk of bursting of the coalition, which is pretty unlikely.

Second point: there is a polarization between those who were mobilized and supported these mobilizations and supporters of the AKP, the ruling party. Polarization with mutual incomprehension because the mainstream media have also déligitimé mobilization, with the risk we've seen in some places clashes between civilians. For example, last Thursday, in a city of the region of the Black Sea, Rize, demonstrators supporting the cause of Gezi sea were attacked by activists of the AKP. Moreover, sporadically in some areas, we have mobilized clashes between groups and against-demonstrations.

TomEkin: Should we fear violent clashes between supporters of the AKP and protesters during rallies under the AKP this weekend?

It is not impossible at all. You should know that currently, we are debating whether to delay these rallies because the tension is palpable. And we have events in cities across the country continue, which are more or less suppressed by location. It is possible that violent clashes occur during these gatherings, or in conjunction with them.

Moks: Do you think that the media exaggerate a little challenge? For proof, no media to tell the tranquility of the place today ...

The mainstream media in Turkey have very little relayed mobilizations and were widely criticized by protesters for it.

Guest: Demonstrations are they really representative of the whole of the Turkish population?

They gave the image of a violent protest. Part of Turkish society is not aware of the magnitude of the challenge. For their part, have mobilized massive appeal to the international media and social networks. The information is also an issue of conflict. In particular, the demonstrations taking place outside of Istanbul are very poorly covered and relayed, both in Turkey and abroad.

Nahas: The Erdogan authority can be challenged within the AKP?

Several officials of the AKP government adopted more conciliatory positions as Erdogan, especially while he was on a diplomatic trip abroad last week. It is difficult to know if it is a division of roles internally or real dissonance. Since the return of Erdogan, his closest advisors reaffirmed their cohesion around it.

David: President Gul seems to take the floor against Erdogan calling for dialogue and calm ...

The differences in approach between Erdogan and Gul are not new. In several cases, when Erdogan adopted a firm attitude, President Gül had a less clear-cut attitude. But several times since the coming to power of the AKP, in times of crisis in particular, the two men agreed and allocated roles.

At the level of discourse and style, Gul, actually, has a conciliatory position. But that did not prevent the enactment last Monday, the impugned legislation which regulates the sale of alcohol. So, the stock level, we do not see real dissonance.

Ersin: The fall of the government is feasible?

One of the slogans chanted during demonstrations and rallies is a call for the resignation of the government. However, this seems unlikely, given that he has not made any concessions so far.

Another hypothesis is that early elections. To date, it also seems unlikely. If elections were held soon, the AKP probably would win. The opposition parties do not have to present sufficient voting power to change the political balance.

Claudio Marraccini: I come from a family of Levantine living in Izmir for over four centuries. Why do European countries and the United States do not condemn most firmly drifts Erdogan that affect individual freedoms?

International pressure is sustained for several days, either side of the leaders of the European Union, the United States and several European countries. On the one hand, critics are bright, especially on police repression of protests. However, different countries may fear the risk of political destabilization in a very complex international environment already, especially in Syria. This was after a meeting with EU officials Erdogan adopted a more moderate discourse, for a time.

The economic dimension is also important. The Istanbul Stock Exchange fell sharply in recent days, and losses in economic terms, in tourism and others are consistent. The government intends to restore the image of Turkey in restoring order.

Alex: What is the position of the military vis-à-vis the islamistion the country army is supposed to be the guarantor of secularism?

The army is largely absent events. No statement was made. In the current state of forces, a military intervention seems unlikely.

Pierre C: Who in the opposition could bring all these ways and form a real opposition to Erdogan?

The BDP, Kurdish nationalist party, is not involved in the demonstrations. It is engaged in the process of settlement of the Kurdish issue in progress, and does not wish to oppose the government.

The Kemalist party, while supporting the mobilization is divided internally between a liberal group and a Turkish nationalist group, and just to capitalize on the protest. For now, the challenge of the last days does not seem to lead to a reconfiguration of the opposition supporter level. It is unclear how the dissatisfaction and demands that were expressed can be relayed in the partisan arena.

KZ: Yesterday demonstrators to express their support to the protesters lawyers were arrested in a completely illegal. One more example of the authoritarian Prime Minister ...

Dozens of lawyers were arrested yesterday in the courthouse, on the grounds they chanted slogans in a public building. They were remanded in custody, and then released. Today, hundreds of lawyers protested against these actions in Istanbul and Ankara.

Lakrymo: Is Erdogan's strategy, which is to finally get a part of the population against another, can work?

Supports Erdogan, in terms of numbers, are more important. On this popular base that relies to assert its leadership and firmness. On several occasions, he said that the minority can not, in a democracy, to impose its will on the majority.

Taf: There is much talk of a "Turkish Spring" in reference to the Arab Spring. But would not you rather see a link between these events and in May 1968 in France?

You can see the similarities: the role of youth in the context of a long-established power, a dispute about the lifestyles, the starting tight enough to claim that expand to demands for more freedoms. All in a more favorable economic environment.
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