If observed carefully, one can see similar trends of change as well as different clusters of countries that may end up with similar political structures. The most obvious are Tunisia and Egypt, which avoided bloodshed and are in transition to constitutional democracies. This does not mean that the armed forces overseeing the transition period will not remain in the equation until a pluralistic regime can mature.
There is another group, like Syria and Bahrain, with varying degrees of participation by armed forces. The fall of minority governments in these countries may have such devastating effects that they may opt to negotiate to remain in power provided that they share that power with other forces which had been kept out of the political center. If they do not, they are likely to fall as well, with much bloodshed.
