Key to solving the Syrian impasse: Russia

Turkey is preparing to host the second Friends of Syria meeting on April 1, following the first one in Tunisia, as the situation in its neighbor -- with which it shares an 877-kilometer-long border -- continues to be in complete “deadlock.” Just like the overwhelming majority of the Syrian people, Turkey has exhibited a strong will that Bashar al-Assad must leave the wheel of the country, but no significant option for how this can be done has emerged so far.

The fragmentation in the international community is bestowing extra life on the Assad regime, but also causing dozens of people to die every day. The death toll has already exceeded 8,000 according to United Nations statistics. The Syrian opposition, on the other hand, claims this number to be above 11,000. And the Assad regime says more than 2,000 security troops have died. In addition to deaths, there have also been increasing human rights violations and displacement of populations. Moreover, thousands of people are reported to have gone missing after they were arrested by Assad's troops. Currently, about 250,000 people have been displaced within the country while at least 30,000 people have sought shelter in neighboring countries.

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Spring on the Arab people

A major disagreement between observers and commentators is on the nature of the driving force of change. Is it domestic or international, meaning is it the US holding the strings? Whatever the verdict may be, everyone seems to be surprised and is unsure of the outcome.

If observed carefully, one can see similar trends of change as well as different clusters of countries that may end up with similar political structures. The most obvious are Tunisia and Egypt, which avoided bloodshed and are in transition to constitutional democracies. This does not mean that the armed forces overseeing the transition period will not remain in the equation until a pluralistic regime can mature.

There is another group, like Syria and Bahrain, with varying degrees of participation by armed forces. The fall of minority governments in these countries may have such devastating effects that they may opt to negotiate to remain in power provided that they share that power with other forces which had been kept out of the political center. If they do not, they are likely to fall as well, with much bloodshed.

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